TL;DR
- IPO Target: SpaceX is reportedly pursuing a $75 billion IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation.
- Valuation Gap: Morningstar analysts value SpaceX at $780 billion, less than half the proposed target.
- Investor Risk: Starlink revenue, launch dominance, xAI uncertainty, and SpaceX losses will shape public demand.
- Market Timing: SpaceX is expected to price the IPO before a possible June 12 Nasdaq start.
Ahead of expected June 11 pricing, SpaceX’s possible record public share sale is moving toward a valuation fight as Morningstar values SpaceX at less than half the target. If the timetable holds, public investors will test the gap between SpaceX’s price ambition and an analyst estimate that has not moved with it.
What Public Investors Would Fund
SpaceX’s proposed share sale now centers on a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise if the deal prices as planned. Public investors face two linked questions: how much capital SpaceX can raise and whether the proposed price already assumes too much.
The $75 billion raise is what puts the deal in record territory. Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion in its 2019 IPO, still the benchmark for a public offering; SpaceX would be seeking almost three times that amount if the deal prices as planned. At that size, the IPO would be judged on the cash SpaceX brings in as well as on the price public investors accept.
SpaceX would reach the $75 billion target by issuing 556 million new shares at $135 each. Because those would be primary shares, the money would go to SpaceX rather than to existing holders selling stock. The listing would give the company growth capital, while leaving public investors to judge whether the valuation already prices in too much of that growth.
That judgment could reach beyond institutional buyers. SpaceX is considering reserving as much as 30% of the offering for retail investors, widening exposure to a deal built around both heavy losses and Starlink’s growth story.
SpaceX lost $4.28 billion in the latest reported quarter after a $4.94 billion loss in 2025. Starlink gives the filing its clearest revenue base, with $3.26 billion in quarterly revenue and a 69% share of SpaceX’s total revenue.
The satellite-internet business also generated $11.3 billion in 2025 revenue and more than $4.4 billion in operating income. That makes Starlink central to the investment case, but not enough on its own to settle whether public investors should accept the $1.75 trillion valuation.
That is where outside market commentary adds pressure. Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, compared the proposed SpaceX price with a sales multiple far above Nvidia’s recent market rating. Musk’s 366-day lock- up would limit immediate insider selling, but it would not remove the larger pricing question facing new buyers.
Why the Valuation Is Contested
Morningstar gives SpaceX a narrow economic moat rating, with launch and satellite communications carrying the strongest parts of the case. In 2025, SpaceX performed 51% of global launches and lifted 83% of the mass sent to orbit from Earth, giving the company a scale advantage few rivals can match.
xAI complicates that advantage because the business remains an uncertain value driver rather than a settled profit engine. Its orbital AI infrastructure thesis leaves investors weighing a larger potential market against a value-destruction risk that is not resolved.
For Laurence Pevsner, partner at Lux Capital, the concern is that xAI could push SpaceX’s valuation higher while shifting the risk to public shareholders.
“The AI lab is what’s really spiking the valuation and I think it’s a risky bet to put onto shareholders.”
Laurence Pevsner, Partner at Lux Capital (via BBC)
Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and Chinese reusable-launch startups remain future competitive threats if their capabilities improve materially. Public investors would be buying SpaceX’s current lead and the execution risk around keeping it.
June Pricing Will Test SpaceX’s Higher Valuation
January expectations were lower: a $1.5 trillion valuation and a possible $50 billion raise. The current plan would move that to roughly $1.75 trillion and about $75 billion, putting both a higher valuation and a larger capital raise before public investors.
Morningstar’s $780 billion estimate makes that jump contested. Investors would have to weigh Starlink’s revenue base, launch dominance, and xAI upside against SpaceX’s losses and an analyst valuation less than half the IPO target.
The next market test is expected on June 11, when SpaceX prices the IPO ahead of a possible June 12 Nasdaq start. If the timetable holds, the IPO price will show how much of SpaceX’s growth case public investors are willing to fund now.
